Feral Ungulate Distribution and Disease Risk in New Zealand

Client: Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and Biosecurity New Zealand

Feral deer, pigs, goats, sheep, and cattle are established across New Zealand and could carry exotic livestock diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease if those diseases ever arrived. Understanding where these animals overlap with farms is critical for biosecurity planning.

We combined records from multiple data sources and used statistical modelling to estimate where feral pigs and other ungulates were most likely present, mapped across the country. We then built an interactive tool showing how close each location was to different types of farms, letting users assess and adjust risk based on their own assumptions.

Outcome: MPI and Biosecurity New Zealand gained the ability to identify the areas and farms at greatest risk in the event of a disease outbreak.

Method: Occupancy modelling with an interactive risk-weighting tool.